For farmers and ranchers in the U.S., this past year was a tough one. Not only did the majority of states experience record drought conditions, but the national drought extended eastward to encompass most of the country except for the eastern seaboard. Naturally, these conditions affected crop yields and livestock, resulting in difficulties for consumers as well as farmers. Food costs rose as a result, leading to additional inflationary pressures. The question now is what lies ahead for the coming year as farmers and ranchers try to recover. Fratogo believes it’s worth exploring the 2023 drought forecasts in an effort to anticipate potential solutions.
The 2022 Drought Season By the Numbers
According to recent drought reports, 53% of the lower 48 states experienced moderate to severe drought conditions in 2022. Of these states, the middle section of the country bore the brunt of the drought. Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Iowa and Colorado experienced severe drought conditions. Other states in the southwestern U.S. were also significantly impacted, though not quite as severely. In total, over 280 million acres of crops suffered drought conditions. This resulted in 75% of farmers reporting significant crop yield reductions, and an estimated 82 million people were directly impacted by these effects. Many are hoping drought forecasts moving forward are more favorable.
Shifting Weather Patterns Ahead
For more than two years, a La Niña weather pattern has dominated the globe. La Niña refers to weather conditions where the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters are at cooler temperatures than normal. As a result of this, the impact of nature’s climate cycles is somewhat buffered. Temperatures tend to be slightly cooler around the globe than they otherwise would be. Notably, weather and drought forecasts expect this pattern to persist into the early part of 2023. But that will then shift to an El Niño weather pattern. In contrast to La Niña, an El Niño pattern boasts warmer temperatures along the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters. Thus, it is expected that most countries will experience higher temperatures than normal as 2023 progresses.
Drought Forecasts for 2023
Given that global temperatures are expected to be higher in 2023, it’s no surprise that drought forecasts aren’t favorable. According to some predictions, the southwestern U.S. will be most impacted. This is bad news, especially for states like Arizona, Colorado and Utah, which remain in a 22-year drought. But it’s relevant to all western and central states as well. Farmers and ranchers in these areas are expected to again suffer crop loss and effects on livestock. These include increased freight costs related to livestock feed supplies. These effects may not be seen until the second half of the year. But according to the majority of the drought forecasts, 2023 is not looking especially forgiving.
Farmer and Rancher Supports and Services
This past year, farmers and ranchers alike received additional support services related to drought conditions. Specifically, the Farm Service Agency (FSA) and local jurisdictions established various programs to ease the financial burden. Fratogo believes those involved should be aware of these specific support opportunities. For example, the Livestock Forage Disaster Program compensates farmers for grazing losses secondary to drought. The Emergency Loan Program, similarly, makes loans available to such farmers and ranchers with delayed payment options. And the Noninsured Disaster Assistance Program pays for low yields and losses resulting from natural disasters. The FSA even has programs to support freight transportation for livestock feed supplies.
Leverage Supports to Meet Community Needs
If the drought forecasts for 2023 are accurate, then farmers and ranchers must prepare as best they can. This includes being aware of programs that can provide support if needed. At the same time, it’s likely food supply shortages will increase, leading to higher prices and inflation. With these cost-of-living increases, consumers must be prepared as well. In these efforts, Fratogo is proud to partner with farmers and ranchers to help them serve their communities. As a third-party logistics provider, Fratogo can reduce costs while improving freight transportation efficiency. By providing these services as well as offering a resource for potential cost solutions, Fratogo is invested in helping communities survive these expected droughts.
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